And I am feeling so small...

I have not been home for Tet for 5 years. The perks of being home for Tet are not limited to being able to eat delicious food or getting red pockets, but also seeing friends and relatives that I would not be able to see during my summer visit, since Tet is the only time of the year that everyone is at home instead of struggling with life elsewhere. This time, I was able to meet and spend quality time with many friends from middle school, and we had the fun time together that we had waited for many years.

That said, while Tet is already wonderful enough as it is, this trip back to Vietnam has gone beyond expectation, which I give credits to the new people I met. The high intensity of family and group-of-friends gatherings allowed me to expand my friend circle and meet many new people, from young to old, whose knowledge and characters have fascinated me so much in the past few days. If I had to describe the magnitude of good impression these people have had upon me, I would have to cite a verse of the song "Say Something" (A Great Big World ft. Christina Aguilera) that has been playing in my head for days:

And I am feeling so small

It was over my head

I know nothing at all

Well, I admit this verse is applied out of context, but I must say, I am not at all being theatrical. I guess being inside the Princeton bubble and my own world of Economics and academics for so long makes me forget what great things people do and what great ideas people think of out there.

To give an example, while I closely follow the news of the U.S., I hardly think much about them and simply follow the "perspective of the crowds," that is, to agree on whatever said on the media or by the majority of the people. But then, when I had a conversation yesterday with my great uncle, a military strategist, who for obvious reasons does not know as well as I do about what's happening in America. Yet, when I updated him with the news, he was able to give many interesting perspectives, many of which I may or may not agree with, yet very noteworthy regardless. Only then that I realized whatever part of my brain that is devoted to issues outside academics has been put in hibernating mode.

This is just an example. With the high intensity of gatherings and the many different people at each gathering, I got exposure to so much more astonishment. Each and every of my friends and relatives opened my eyes with their understanding of law, history, international relations, general knowledge, languages, life skills, and talents. Though being in Princeton student still makes me proud of my efforts along the way, I've never dared to think of myself as any superior individual, for I think we are all different as who we are, and sometimes the only thing that picks one out of a diverse crowd is luck. Yet, this time around, I am really wondering the Princeton admissions office has picked the wrong person. Or maybe I have not tried hard enough to live up to the name and reputation that were bestowed upon.

Anyways, right now the only emotion I have is

And I am feeling so small

It was over my head

I know nothing at all.

and this is just the inspiration that I need.

Favors

Caution: Don't relate yourself to this blog post for any reason. 99% chance is that I'm not talking about you. Though I do feel the need to say what needs to be said, I very much fear misunderstanding.

Recently, I watched the US political drama series "House of Cards" and was very impressed by what the main character, an ambitious Congressman, said: "I like it when people owe me a favor". Indeed, in the series, all the favors he'd done for people were returned to him very timely at the most critical moments.

I've done many people favors in the past, as they did for me. When people thank me nowadays, I've got what I thought is a good response without making people feel awkward: "I like to have people owe me a favor". Well, though I must admit the potential benefits, I don't think this reasoning was why I did people a favor in the first place. Nor when people do me favors normally. That is the nature of favors, at least it should be: One should not do favors out of expectation for returns.

However, I've been frustrated lately by some certain people whom I appreciated for their values, and whom I had tried my best to help constantly for a long period of time (say, months) when they needed. Well, nowadays even a greeting once in a while (read: years) seem difficult for them. It's as if everything is forgotten. Well, this seems to contradict my point earlier about expecting nothing in return. In fact, it does, as a part of me expects this friendship to be maintained, unless we had done something horrible to each other, which did not happen. This situation made me re-question many things about my philosophy and the nature of relationship between humans. Or is it simply time can make people forget everything?

Or, maybe I'm too nostalgic a person.

A (really) bad analogy

This week I have spent most of my time researching on the bailouts practice in America. The Central Bank, as many people agree, has a role as the lender of last resort who is willing to provide liquidity to an illiquid bank. By rough definition, there are two types of "bad" banks: the insolvent one, and the illiquid one. The latter is "less bad" than the former. A bank is insolvent when its assets value goes down, hence its net worth becomes negative. This is often because a bank is imprudent in its lending, resulting in a big portion of non-performing debts on its asset side. During crisis time, when these assets go down in value enough, a bank becomes insolvent. In theory, this type of bad bank does not deserve help, and should take the bad consequence as punishment in the competitive environment. Alternatively, a bank can be illiquid, which means that it is just unlucky that many people, for unconvincing reasons, show up to demand cash at the same time. This bank deserves help, since it has done nothing wrong. The problem is, it is often hard to distinguish an illiquid (unlucky) bank, and an insolvent (bad) bank. Hence, the government, even with good intention, may end up bailing out the bad bank as well.

To make a really bad analogy, in research, there is an unmotivated researcher, and a bad researcher. An unmotivated researcher, like an illiquid bank, generally is a decent researcher who does nothing wrong, and he is just unlucky that no idea comes up at a particular point of time. A bad researcher, on the other hand, takes on many imprudent actions (not trying hard enough, not having the brain to be a researcher, etc.) and simply deserves to fail and be kicked out of the field. Now, that's me right now. It's not clear to me which type I am.

Let's hope I'm the unmotivated one.

Look up

This article (Look Up), share by a friend of mine, hit me hard, from the first sentence: "People don't look up". At that very moment, I asked myself: "Do I look up?". Well, sometimes I don't.

Thirty minutes ago, I got out of the exam room and felt grumpy about not being able to do what I thought I could. Not doing well (or at least, as well as I expected) in exams here at Princeton is no longer a surprise to me; yet it upsets me every time.  As a (bad) habit, I told two friends whom I met on the way home: "I just want to die now". As a (bad) habit, I often thought of not getting a good grade for a class and, (a worse habit) consequently, I worried about not getting into grad school, and (my worst habit) I started to wonder how I would achieve my life goals in that scenario. This happens every time. I don't know since when my mind has started to have the illusion that my life is perfectly arranged on a straight line, and my only job is to make sure that I walk on that line. Apparently it's an illusion; it's not how life works.

How does it work, then?

It fails me sometimes. Many times.
It makes me struggle, and after all the effort, it leaves me with nothing, sometimes.
It tricks me into thinking I've got it all under control, then it tells me "who do you think you are?".

Those are the times when I don't look up. Those are the times I would just stop believing in my ideals for a while, stop trusting my ability. Those are the times that people around just seem like giants, so grand, so great, so brilliant that I would never be able to catch up. I don't know why even though I knew I should not feel this way, yet I do it anyway every time life fails me. Why though? There are many other things which I'm strong at, and these exams are not the only thing that defines me, nor my success, nor my failure.

After all, these sound like I'm trying to make up excuses for failing an exam. Well, there's no excuse for failing, yet there's also no excuse for overlooking the bright side of a failure. Just like an economist put it: "Don't let a recession go to waste", I will try harder. I'll look Up.

A Note on What Economists Do

Yesterday two people (who are knowledgeable and important to me) implicitly "questioned" me the role of economists in the world. One of them, upon hearing that I'm taking a course on financial credit in the macroeconomy with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, challenged me why economists could not predict the Great Recession; the other one simply told me "with the current situation, economists aren't doing so well right now". Well, there are certain truth in what was said, though there is also misunderstanding in what, in my opinion, economists actually do.

First, the myth about "prediction". Much of the public believes that professional economists should be able to foresee the looming crises (financial crises, banking crises, currency crises, etc.), though, first of all, it must be said that predicting the future was never the specialty of economists. The complexity and the fast-pace innovations in the world leave economists with too little time to make any precise prediction. Before any careful models of the world could be formulated, new factors have already changed drastically the structure of the world. Not that they did not know the potential troubles that financial inventions like MBS, CDS or CDO could bring about; it's just that no one could make a clear statement on WHEN the negative effects would actually arrive, and HOW BIG those effects are.

That leads to a further question "So what can economists actually do? Why bother studying economics at all?" It's completely understandable why someone could ask this kind of questions, though asking them implicitly implies denying all the things that economists did in the past. While a not-too-small fraction of economists try to write articles about the future (and cross their fingers, hoping that if they are consistent with their ideas long enough, the future would EVENTUALLY arrive), I think a far more important and well-done job that economists did was to study the history and design suitable mechanisms to make sure that the bad history does not repeat. (Mechanism design here is the key purpose!). For instance, little did those who blame economists take into account the Quiet Period with little amount of financial crises, the mobile auctions that earn unbelievable revenue for many governments in Europe and the US, and other achievements that none other than economists engineered.

Like any other science, there is a limit to what economists can do, and of course, at times like this people are leaning towards blaming and accusing faults rather than making constructive statements. Realizing what economists are supposed to do (instead of fortune telling), however, may help adjust expectation to the correct direction.

Letter at 2 A.M.

This post will be a short one. In fact, I want to say some words of apology to someone:

I'm sorry that I made you worried. I never meant to. It's just that not seeing you for too long makes me feel insecure, even though I should have never doubted our friendship. I seriously had mixed feelings that night, and when I was fed with the idea that even the ONE and ONLY person that I thought I truly know well at this place is holding back from me, that was the most terrible and inexpressible emotion. In any case, thank you for the package, and thank you for clarifying. I surely will need some snacks while doing my 6 psets.

In case someone wonders why I wrote this publicly, let me explain. I had the option of running to your room and apologizing, but that would involve waking you up at 2am. I also had the option of sending you a facebook message, but that's lame. I wrote this here because this blog is my collection of reminders, and I don't want to repeat this mistake ever, so I figured if I wrote the apology down here, I would never forget.

Vu.

Choice Under Uncertainty

First, I must thank all the people who have been very supportive to my decision. You all are a very important  part of my life, and it's nice to know that I've got firm support wherever I go.

I'm writing this entry not to try to convince everyone that leaving Princeton to study at LSE for one full year is a good idea; in fact, I'm not so sure either. Facing an opportunity is not all about excitement, but also doubt, fear and uncertainty. For various reasons related to my post-graduation plan that I opt not to elaborate here, perhaps it's better (or at least more convenient) for me to stay at Princeton. When we were younger, participating in a program abroad is somehow a legitimate excuse/chance for vacations, and I still know people who do so. Now, it's a different story. Sophomore year in college is already the transition to a life where every step I take determine my future.

I must step carefully.

But how do I know if a step is right? Well, the short answer is "I don't know". No one knows. Nunca se sabe. During the Princeton Halftime Retreat, I was informed of a quote: "We can't connect the dots looking forwards; we can only connect the dots looking backwards". Steve Jobs said it, and I agree. So far, my life algorithm has been: 1) Pick a path, 2) Walk along that path, and 3) At the end of the path, due to the completeness, it was either a good path choice, or a bad one. There's always much uncertainty. I won't know how right/correct this choice is until I stand at the end of the journey looking back. Yes, things can go wrong. (In fact, things go wrong all the time.), but there's a chance that ignoring a potential path is already a wrong choice.

In any case, I understand this might have been the worst entry ever written. My mind is not that clear at this point. Two things for sure though:
1) I will miss Princeton A LOT, and
2) I still believe life is what you make out of it.

Good luck to everyone, for whatever amazing things you are expecting.